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Neither shortcut is reliable

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Smoking is an addiction that requires a behavioral modification as well as a smoking cessation program to quit successfully

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The model is: $$y_t = \rho W y_t + X_t \beta + \mu_i + \epsilon_t$$ In words, cigarette consumption in state $i$ depends on (1) the average consumption of neighboring states (weighted by $W$, with strength $\rho$), (2) the states own price and income ($X_t \beta$), and (3) a state-specific intercept ($\mu_i$)